February 7, 2008 - 3:04 pm
So, on my way to lunch at the deli, I heard Rush mention Romney’s speech, which was going on at that very moment. Then Rush say’s Romney is dropping out of the race. I nearly ran off the road. (No, not really. I’m just trying to illustrate my surprise. I’m actually a very good driver. Honest.)
Romney’s out. All the talking heads have been saying for weeks that Romney was the closest thing to a “true conservative” that we had (to which I scoffed). So now that he’s dropped out, what will his 293 current delegates do? They can’t cast their votes for him, so will they go with whoever is most popular or whoever is most like Romney politically? Hmmmm.
Let’s just say, in my little pipe-dream world that all of Romney’s delegates switch to Huck. That would put the current count roughly at 700 for McCain, 500 for Huck. If the trend continues, Huck will likely carry the rest of the deep South for 200 delegates. McCain eeked out victories in Missouri and South Carolina where Romney and Huck split the conservative vote, so I’m going to say Huck can carry Kansas and North Carolina for another 110. I think he can also count on the “old south” states of Kentucky and Virginia, so there’s 110 more for somewhere around 950 comfortably in hand.
I have to cede the Yankee states (VT, RI, PA, and the District) to McCain for around 170 delegates. I also think he’ll take the bluer states in the Northwest, Ohio, and New Mexico gaining another 190. That gives McCain 1050-ish unquestionable delegates.
So now it becomes a battle for the Mid-West where just over 200 delegates are still up for grabs. I think those states will lean towards Huckabee, but realistically, it’s going to be an uphill fight. David versus Goliath if you will. Although, a 70 year-old, five foot tall Goliath doesn’t really fit the analogy very well.
[Edit: When I listed the “Yankee states” I intended to include MD.]