December 17, 2007 - 4:30 pm
[Editor’s Note: I wrote this a few days ago. I’ve now come up with two likely outcomes, but I don’t want to seem like I’m betting on both horses in a two horse race. Thus I’m posting this one unaltered. I may post my other theory later.]
I’m one of those guys that likes to predict things. Tammy gets pretty aggravated at me when we watch movies or TV because so often I’ll tell he how the show is going to end after only watching the first ten minutes. (My opinion on the vacuity of Hollywood writers’ talent is well documented.) What really makes her mad is that I’m usually right. Example:
During the first commercial break…
Me: Do you want to know what happens?
Her: No!
Me: Ok… Then I won’t tell you that that blonde girl is going to be a total jerk to the new kid, but the rest of the school will rally around him and the blonde girl will end up hated by everyone. Then she’ll realize what a jerk she was and there will be a big hugging scene and maybe a musical number were they all make friends. Oh, and that not-as-cute brunette? She’ll get the guy.
Her: Shut up!
After the show ends…
Me: (With a smug grin on my face.) That’s what I figured.
She: I hate you.
Now, go back with me into the mists of time. Back to the days of the Kenneth Star report and the Monica Lewinsky scandal. This was in early 1998. When Slick Willy finally confessed to America what he’d been up to (“Confessed” is used here loosely since all of America already knew.) Tammy asked me if I thought Hillary would dump the scum bag.
In a moment of pure clairvoyances I said no. “She can’t leave him now. She’s been shoving him up the political ladder for 20 years. She won’t give up on him until she’s the president. Then maybe she’ll leave him.”
What’s really amazing about that statement is that it was made two full years before Hillary entered public service for the first time as a New York senator.
Here’s another example. This one happened on opening day of the first LotR movie in December of 2001. There was a preview for “Collateral Damage”, starring Arnold Schwarzenegger. I told a coworker, “You know, Arnold is going to president someday.” Granted it would require an amendment to the U.S. Constitution, but still. This was two years before Arny ran for and was elected The Governator.
So with my track record established here, I want to make some predictions. This time, though, the I hope I’m wrong.
There’s something about our current economy that just doesn’t make sense. The economy is still growing. Despite the media’s constant doom and gloom message over the last couple of years. Despite retardedly high oil prices. Despite two wars that have dragged on for five years and removed tens of thousands of reservists from the economy. Despite a housing market that is so inflated and out of whack it’s a wonder anyone in California actually owns a home. Despite the current, slow but certain collapse of the mortgage industry. And despite a dollar that is about to take a real nose-dive in the international market.
I’d love to say that it’s all thanks to Bush’s tax cuts. I think those helped for sure, but I can’t accept that as the sole explanation.
So anyway. Here’s my prediction:
I’d love for Huckabee to get the republican nod, but regardless of who she runs against, Hillary will be the democratic candidate and the Clinton War Machine will do what it does best and turn every mote in the eye of her opponent into a mountain while somehow ignoring the forest of planks in her own eyes. The election will be close, but this time the old Clinton democrats will edge out the conservative base.
With Pelosi (or someone similar) running congress, Hillary will be able to repeal all of Bush’s tax cuts as well as bloat the budget with all sorts of socialist programs. I’m not sure she’ll get her health care dreams, but she’ll do enough. She’ll also yank the troops out of Iraq as quick as she can.
The good news is that by the time she can get the troops out, the “Surge” will have run its course, and the war will be winding down anyway. Iraq will not be stable, but it won’t come crashing down as the last U.S. cargo plane lifts off from Baghdad.
The bad news is that her tax hikes will burst whatever thinly stretched bubble is keeping the economy buoyant. The dollar will genuinely crash along with the housing market and the stock market. Oil, because it’s globally traded using the dollar, will go through the roof. “Recession” is probably not strong enough a word to describe the U.S. economy that will follow. In 2010, republicans will surge back into congress and produce gridlock for two years before we manage to be rid of the Clintons once and for all.
Pretty grim, eh? Let’s start praying now that I’m wrong.
[Ed: As I said above. I have developed another theory that’s much less gloomy, but I’m not sold on it yet. Pray anyway!]
